Article published by CNBC.com
Written by Greg Iacurci
“Market conditions are pressuring the 4% rule, a popular rule of thumb for retirees to determine how much money they can live on each year without fear of running out later.”
“Withdrawing money from one’s nest egg is among the most complex financial exercises for households. There are many unknowns — the length of retirement, one’s spending needs (health costs, for example) and investment returns, to name a few.
“The 4% rule is meant to yield a consistent stream of annual income, and give seniors a high degree of comfort that their funds will last over a 30-year retirement.
“Simply, the rule says retirees can withdraw 4% of the total value of their investment portfolio in the first year of retirement. The dollar amount increases with inflation (the cost of living) the following year, as it would the year after, and so on.
“However, market conditions — namely, lower projected returns for stocks and bonds — don’t seem to be working in retirees’ favor.
“Given market expectations, the 4% rule “may no longer be feasible” for seniors, according to a paper published Thursday by researchers at Morningstar. These days, the 4% rule should really be the 3.3% rule, they said.
“Though the reduction may sound small, it can have a big impact on retirees’ standard of living.
“For example, using the 4% rule, an investor would be able to withdraw $40,000 from a $1 million portfolio in the first year of retirement. However, using the 3% rule, that first-year withdrawal falls to $33,000.
“The difference would be more pronounced later in retirement, when accounting for inflation: $75,399 versus $62,205, respectively, in the 30th year, according to a CNBC analysis. (The analysis assumes a 2.21% annual rate of inflation, the average projected by Morningstar over the next three decades.)”
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